§ 2.2. Population Forecasts and Projections

Population Forecasts

Population projections are based on past and current population trends and are not predictions, rather they extend past growth trends into the future and their reliability depends on the continuation of these past growth trends. Projections should be considered as one of many tools used to help anticipate and predict future needs within the city. Population levels are subject to physical conditions, environmental concerns, land use, zoning restrictions, taxation, annexation, and other political policies that influence business and personal location decisions.

WDOA Projection

In 2003 the Wisconsin Department of Administration (WDOA) Demographic Services Center prepared baseline population projections to the year 2020 for the communities and counties of Wisconsin. The WDOA utilized a projection formula that calculates the annual population change over three varying time spans. From this formula, the average annual numerical population change is calculated, which was used to give communities preliminary population projections for a future date.

Table 2-2 displays the WDOA preliminary population projections for the City of Greenwood from 2000 to 2020.

West Central Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission (WCWRPC) Population Projection

Population projections were developed by the Regional Planning Commission in 1992. The WDOA projections are, by State Statute, the official population projections for Wisconsin. However, WDOA states that, because of the way their projections are developed, local planning agencies should attempt to derive different projections based on improved information about the community. Therefore the Regional Planning Commission developed its own population projections taking into account knowledge of local conditions. According to the Regional Planning Commission's projections, the City of Greenwood is estimated to have a 2020 population of 975 persons.

Projections created by West Central Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission (WCWRPC) were completed to the year 2020, however they were completed in ten year increments rather than five year. The WCWRPC projections are very conservative. These projections also do not utilize 2000 Census counts. It should be noted that WCWRPC projected that all Clark County municipalities would decline in population from 2000 to 2020.

Linear Trend Projection Model

Linear projections were created by using the 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 census counts and increasing and decreasing population counts by a constant value that is based on the selected census counts. Therefore, linear trends are based directly on historical population trends. According to linear trends results, the year 2020 population projection for the city is 1,043 persons and the year 2030 projection is 1,040 persons. Because the projections are based on past population trends, a slight decrease in population is projected over the next several decades.

It must be stressed that a stable or declining population does not mean new housing will be stagnant. Population decreases are strongly associated with declining persons per household figures. The city should expect a continued interest to develop new housing. _____

Comparative Population Projections

Table 2-2 describes the population projection techniques that were described earlier within this section. Overall, it is anticipated that the City of Greenwood's population will increase over the planning period. The city should plan for a rate of growth similar to that represented by the WDOA projection as indicated in Table 2-2. For further demographic information refer to the Clark County Inventory and Trends Report.

Table 2-2

Population Projections, City of Greenwood, 2000—2030

	2000	2005	2010	2015	2020	2025	2030
Census	1,079
WDOA Projection		1,100	1,128	1,165	1,204
WCWRPC	977		975		975
Linear Trend	1,079	1,062	1,046	1,044	1,043	1,042	1,040

 

 

Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration, Preliminary Municipal Population Projections, 2005-2020, October 2003; West Central Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission, 1992; U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000; Foth & Van Dyke, 2002.